Context:

• At the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Donald Trump promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president.

• He also made other crypto-friendly promises, including creating a "Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council" and opposing a central bank digital currency.

• Trump expressed his intent to make the United States "the crypto capital of the world."

• https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-bitcoin-reserve-and-fire-gensler-3876ad79

• https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-implement-bitcoin-strategic-reserve-elected-president

• https://manifold.markets/AndrewMcCalip/will-donald-trump-announce-a-us-bit

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves YES if:

  1. Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024, AND

  2. Within 1 year of his inauguration, his administration: signs an executive order, or passes legislation, or otherwise officially establishes a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin or other crypto

  3. Actual crypto must be acquired and held for reserve purposes.

• Resolves NO if:

  1. Trump is elected, but the above conditions are not met within 1 year of inauguration.

• Resolves N/A if:

  1. Donald Trump is not elected president in November 2024.

Notes:

• The total amount of cryptocurrency in the reserve does not affect the resolution.

• Merely starting the legal process is not sufficient for a YES resolution; the reserve must be actually established and holding Bitcoin or other crypto.

• If the reserve holds Ethereum or other currencies, instead of Bitcoin, this would still resolve as YES. CBDC does not count for YES resolution.

• Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Updates:

  • The source of cryptocurrency is irrelevant. Coins that are moved into the reserve, whether seized or newly acquired, will count.

  • A valid YES resolution requires that the reserve is established with coins being held inside, regardless of how those coins originally came into government hands.

• Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access to Assets Clarification:

  • The reserve will count seized cryptocurrency only if the government actually has control (i.e. access to the private keys) and is able to move these assets to the strategic reserve.

  • Simply seizing hardware without the cryptographic keys does not qualify for a YES resolution.

• Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the US government is holding a large amount of cryptocurrency (e.g. from seizures) and an official government source confirms this control. A formal declaration of a 'strategic reserve' is not required.