Context:
At the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Donald Trump promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president.
He also made other crypto-friendly promises, including creating a "Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council" and opposing a central bank digital currency.
Trump expressed his intent to make the United States "the crypto capital of the world."
https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-bitcoin-reserve-and-fire-gensler-3876ad79
https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-implement-bitcoin-strategic-reserve-elected-president
https://manifold.markets/AndrewMcCalip/will-donald-trump-announce-a-us-bit
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES if:
Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024, AND
Within 1 year of his inauguration, his administration: signs an executive order, or passes legislation, or otherwise officially establishes a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin or other crypto
Actual crypto must be acquired and held for reserve purposes.
Resolves NO if:
Trump is elected, but the above conditions are not met within 1 year of inauguration.
Resolves N/A if:
Donald Trump is not elected president in November 2024.
Notes:
The total amount of cryptocurrency in the reserve does not affect the resolution.
Merely starting the legal process is not sufficient for a YES resolution; the reserve must be actually established and holding Bitcoin or other crypto.
If the reserve holds Ethereum or other currencies, instead of Bitcoin, this would still resolve as YES. CBDC does not count for YES resolution.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Updates:
The source of cryptocurrency is irrelevant. Coins that are moved into the reserve, whether seized or newly acquired, will count.
A valid YES resolution requires that the reserve is established with coins being held inside, regardless of how those coins originally came into government hands.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access to Assets Clarification:
The reserve will count seized cryptocurrency only if the government actually has control (i.e. access to the private keys) and is able to move these assets to the strategic reserve.
Simply seizing hardware without the cryptographic keys does not qualify for a YES resolution.
1,000
putting all my money on no. because surely even trump knows if he takes the gold out of fort knox, and uses it to purchase bitcoin when its elon that told him to; when he doesnt even know what bitcoin is, is an ipshit idea. im also betting elon and trump have a falling out before then. and im betting that trump is the type of guy to cancel the bitcoin idea because it was elon's idea in the first place. even if it would actually work in his own favor.
Pls buy NO and fill my orders guys? Polymarket is coping: https://polymarket.com/event/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025
@DavidFWatson Based on wording, not 100% sure, but imo, if the currently held 200,000 (or about) bitcoin get moved into the new reserve, I would say should resolve YES. Obviously if new bitcoin are bought and put into it also YES. (full clarity, I hold pretty 650mana in NO at 65%)
@PeterBuyukliev Would this resolve YES if the government declares existing cryptocurrency holdings — for instance, seized assets — to be part of a reserve, but does not purchase any new cryptocurrency?
@Twig @barbarous as long as they actually have access to those assets (i.e. they have not just seized the hard drives without the private keys), and move them to the strategic reserve, that counts for me.
Honestly I did not anticipate this being a point of contention, but if I were asked earlier, I would have clarified the same way.
https://polymarket.com/event/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025 trading much much lower, and criteria seem a little bit looser
Market concerning how much is in the reserve (includes possible $0) across all currencies https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/what-will-be-the-total-value-of-the
Depends. What’s in it for him? He could front run the reserve or at least SELL the reserve info to “campaign donors”, for a return cut.