
Context:
At the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Donald Trump promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected president.
He also made other crypto-friendly promises, including creating a "Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council" and opposing a central bank digital currency.
Trump expressed his intent to make the United States "the crypto capital of the world."
https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-bitcoin-reserve-and-fire-gensler-3876ad79
https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-implement-bitcoin-strategic-reserve-elected-president
https://manifold.markets/AndrewMcCalip/will-donald-trump-announce-a-us-bit
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES if:
Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024, AND
Within 1 year of his inauguration, his administration: signs an executive order, or passes legislation, or otherwise officially establishes a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin or other crypto
Actual crypto must be acquired and held for reserve purposes.
Resolves NO if:
Trump is elected, but the above conditions are not met within 1 year of inauguration.
Resolves N/A if:
Donald Trump is not elected president in November 2024.
Notes:
The total amount of cryptocurrency in the reserve does not affect the resolution.
Merely starting the legal process is not sufficient for a YES resolution; the reserve must be actually established and holding Bitcoin or other crypto.
If the reserve holds Ethereum or other currencies, instead of Bitcoin, this would still resolve as YES. CBDC does not count for YES resolution.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Updates:
The source of cryptocurrency is irrelevant. Coins that are moved into the reserve, whether seized or newly acquired, will count.
A valid YES resolution requires that the reserve is established with coins being held inside, regardless of how those coins originally came into government hands.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access to Assets Clarification:
The reserve will count seized cryptocurrency only if the government actually has control (i.e. access to the private keys) and is able to move these assets to the strategic reserve.
Simply seizing hardware without the cryptographic keys does not qualify for a YES resolution.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the US government is holding a large amount of cryptocurrency (e.g. from seizures) and an official government source confirms this control. A formal declaration of a 'strategic reserve' is not required.