Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
175
1kแน€87k
2026
66%
chance

Context:

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves YES if:

    1. Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024, AND

    2. Within 1 year of his inauguration, his administration: signs an executive order, or passes legislation, or otherwise officially establishes a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin or other crypto

    3. Actual crypto must be acquired and held for reserve purposes.

  • Resolves NO if:

    1. Trump is elected, but the above conditions are not met within 1 year of inauguration.

  • Resolves N/A if:

    1. Donald Trump is not elected president in November 2024.

Notes:

  • The total amount of cryptocurrency in the reserve does not affect the resolution.

  • Merely starting the legal process is not sufficient for a YES resolution; the reserve must be actually established and holding Bitcoin or other crypto.

  • If the reserve holds Ethereum or other currencies, instead of Bitcoin, this would still resolve as YES. CBDC does not count for YES resolution.

  • Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Updates:

    • The source of cryptocurrency is irrelevant. Coins that are moved into the reserve, whether seized or newly acquired, will count.

    • A valid YES resolution requires that the reserve is established with coins being held inside, regardless of how those coins originally came into government hands.

  • Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access to Assets Clarification:

    • The reserve will count seized cryptocurrency only if the government actually has control (i.e. access to the private keys) and is able to move these assets to the strategic reserve.

    • Simply seizing hardware without the cryptographic keys does not qualify for a YES resolution.

  • Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the US government is holding a large amount of cryptocurrency (e.g. from seizures) and an official government source confirms this control. A formal declaration of a 'strategic reserve' is not required.

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