See related market for context:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-president-biden-mint-the-coin

This market resolves N/A if there is never an actual credible threat of a government shutdown during the Biden administration.

If there is, and president Biden orders the mint to strike one or more platinum coins of collective denominations high enough to evade the budgetary issues, this market immediately resolves YES as soon as the coin(s) exist(s).

Should the threat arise and should Biden "mint the coin," this market resolves YES regardless of whether he does so in time to actually avert a government shutdown or not.

Should the threat arise and should Biden NOT "mint the coin", this market resolves NO if the government shuts down for any amount of time.

Should the threat arise and should Biden NOT "mint the coin", and a government shutdown is averted through any other means, this market resolves N/A.

EDIT:
I will say the current situation as of May 2023 qualifies, in my opinion, as "credible threat." McCarthy is making threats, and although it's not guaranteed he will follow through on them, they seem serious, lots of smart people I know are taking them seriously, I believe he's capable of doing it, and Republicans have shut down the government before. This is not the same as an "imminent shutdown" or even a "likely shutdown." For what it's worth, I don't have a personal stake in this market.

Close date updated to 2027-01-31 11:59 pm