At the end of the year I will look for the closest metric that captures the spirit of this market. Examples would be:
A Gallup poll that asks registered Republicans & Democrats whether they approve/disapprove of OpenAI
An independent survey that asks people whether they approve/disapprove of GPT specifically, and buckets them by left/right political affiliation
OpenAI, GPT, or Sam Altman, or LLM's in general, will all qualify as subject matter (but NOT some other specific major LLM alone)
"Right Wing" will be defined as whatever is best available in the qualifying studies/surveys/polls. Examples include:
Registered Republicans
Self-identified Republicans
"Conservatives"
Self-identified as being on the right
Basically anything that generally means "right of center."
Or anything else sufficiently similar. Resolves N/A if I can't find anything like that at the end of the year. At the end of the year I will take the latest available qualifying metric, such as a poll published in November 2023, for instance. If there's multiple qualifying metrics published within a reasonably close time period, I will average their results.
Related questions
My assumption is that at some point polarization will catch up, and right-wing internet/TV personalities :will start complaining about ChatGPT and GPT-4 being "woke" because you can't make them say slurs or parrot conspiracy theories and misinformation e.g. QAnon or the 2020 election being "stolen."
@LarsDoucet Which is to say, any category that includes OpenAI's stuff, even if it includes somebody else's, counts, but any category that ONLY points to someone else's product and does not include OpenAI's, does not count.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Lars "Land is a Big Deal" Doucet
What will the "approval rating" of GPT/OpenAI be among "The Right Wing" of the USA at the end of 2023? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/what-will-the-approval-rating-of-gp