In late July 2024, OpenAI announced SearchGPT to moderate fanfare.
https://deepnewz.com/ai/openai-launches-searchgpt-prototype-to-challenge-google-perplexity

Will the search service develop a big enough following to top 2% of US-based search in any month before the end of 2025?

For context, Google has ~87% of US search traffic. With Bing at 6-8% and both Yahoo (!) and DuckDuckGo capturing 1.5-2.8% of search traffic some months. All other services are below 1%.

We can check the search engine market share here.
https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share/all/united-states-of-america

Although please suggest better resolution sources if available.

The question largely comes down to

• will OpenAI offer a free version of their search?

• will it be popular enough in the US to capture a Yahoo! - like following... even for one month?

Note that Perplexity... as far as I can tell has never ranked anywhere near 2% in these rankings. It's possible that their traffic isn't measured correctly. For example search traffic in the app... vs the website.

Do please advise if you have better sites to track and resolve such things. Though the 88 / 7 / 2 / 2 split for Google / Bing / Yahoo / DuckDuckGo does seem to be pretty widely reported...