If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
26
1kṀ8102031
7%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
27%
Legislation/treaties
8%
Economic crash
11%
War
0.1%
Sabotage
47%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
0.1%
Something else
Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?
Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
30% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
5% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
33% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
15% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
14% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
63% chance
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
24% chance
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
9% chance