Until what date will an Google model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena? (>=week)
Plus
3
Ṁ584Jan 6
39%
7%
1st Febuary 2025
7%
1st March 2025
7%
1st April 2025
7%
1st December 2024
6%
1st September 2025
6%
1st August 2025
6%
1st July 2025
6%
1st June 2025
6%
1st May 2025
6%
1st January 2025
The market will resolve to YES if a Google model is the top chatbot on the specified date and for the entire month prior.
The market will resolve to NO if a model from any organization other than Google is the top model during the month before the specified date (and will also resolve NO for subsequent dates).
Exemple:
If LLaMA becomes the top model on January 5th, 2024, the market will resolve as follows:
The market will resolve to NO for all dates after January 5th, 2024, since a model from an organization other than OpenAI has taken the top position.
Even if an OpenAI model regains the top spot later, the market will not change back to YES for any subsequent dates, as the condition for NO was met on January 5th, 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
What will the highest elo of an open-source model on chatbot arena be at the end of 2024?
Which organization will have the top model on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Which companies will outrank OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Which companies will outrank or tie with OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (>= week)
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
47% chance
Which companies will rank in top 10 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
15% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2024? ( >= week)
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?