if a civil war does not occur before 2028 in the United States, what interventions or factors will have ensured ongoing peaceful transfer of power and avoided mass violence, according to estimates of polled experts in 2035?
21
960Ṁ8962035
52%
Tensions never reached a crisis point.
23%
tensions rise to a similar level as the irish troubles, but historians do not consider the level of conflict to count as a "full" civil war
11%
The rise of a common enemy
3%
republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
3%
1.7%
Human extinction
1.2%
The fading of all state governments into decorative irrelevancy, like the current British Monarchy, due to the rise of AI power.
1.1%
devolving more power to state governments
this question resolves by polling a group of scientific prediction experts at resolution time in 2035, selecting experts based on their success in scientifically respected prediction markets or a successor technology. if I detect adversarial behavior before a civil war is successfully avoided, I'll resolve market early with my best estimates of which options will actually work to avoid violence and preserve liberty and justice for all.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000