Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028

Question

From https://manifold.markets/L/if-a-civil-war-is-prevented-in-the

Resolves as per @L's best judgement. If I'm unable to get a response from @L within 2 weeks of close, I will resolve according my best judgement of what @L would have answered.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (20 traders, as of Mar 7, 2025).