Who will successfully convince @Krantz that his solution to alignment of ASI isn't valid?
7
2.6kṀ1495
2030
24%
Nobody
22%
Other
11%
Roman Yampolskiy
9%
Robin Hanson
8%
Nate Soares
7%
Rob Miles
2%
Liron Shapira
1.9%
George Hotz
1.5%
Noam Brown
1.5%
Nathan Labenz
1.4%
Connor Leahy
1.3%
Max Tegmark
1.2%
Ben Goertzle
1.2%
Daniel Hillis

Since 2010, I've been trying to securely share a solution to the scalable alignment of a decentralized symbolic artificial collective intelligence that can beat machine learning to the punch with folks like Doug Lenat, Danny Hillis, Ben Goertzle, Balaji Srinivasan and Robin Hanson. I really need to talk to Eliezer.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-eliezer-charitably-reviewed-my-w?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1?r=S3JhbnR6

Most of my predictions are attempts to find someone to either (1) help me share infohazardous research securely or (2) help me understand why the fate of the world doesn't rest on whether this research safely makes it to the public domain.

I will not make any profit off this prediction. I will only be feeding it names and mana to incentivize cheerful charitablility. If I add you to this list, it is because I respect you. I don't have much money, but this is the most important place I can find to put it. I genuinely believe I am trying to save the world.

It will resolve to the first person that takes the time to explain to me why my approach is invalid. I hope someone does. I will give any profit I make from this prediction to the person (other than me) that invests the most into it via bets or liquidity.

Thank you for helping me learn. 🤓

  • Update 2025-07-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the process for how one might successfully convince him:

    • One should use his argument system to challenge a proposition on which you and the creator disagree.

    • The creator noted that nobody has fully used the system for this purpose yet.

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opened a Ṁ100 YES at 21% order

Does this resolve to "nobody" in 2030 if nobody has convinced you?

If not Destiny, who should I add

@Chumchulum Charitable analytic philosophers. Feel free to add yourself. You seem interested and curiosity is what most people are lacking. Thanks for engaging with the mechanism. Do you understand the basic concept? Try finding a proposition we disagree on and write an argument in the system that challenges it. Nobody has actually used it fully to do that yet.

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