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MANIFOLD
In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.
17
Ṁ100Ṁ440
2030
6%
chance

In 2030, a majority of experts will look back and agree that there was not significant justification for believing with greater than 90% confidence that Llama 3.1 405 would not provide the foundation for nefarious actors to produce existentially risky artificially intelligent systems.

Will resolve to a consensus of experts in 2030.

If no clear data exists that demonstrates the opinion of experts, a poll will be used for resolution.

Market context
LLMs
Programming
Open Source
Large language models
Information security
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