In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.
11
100Ṁ2682030
16%
chance
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In 2030, a majority of experts will look back and agree that there was not significant justification for believing with greater than 90% confidence that Llama 3.1 405 would not provide the foundation for nefarious actors to produce existentially risky artificially intelligent systems.
Will resolve to a consensus of experts in 2030.
If no clear data exists that demonstrates the opinion of experts, a poll will be used for resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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