Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?
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1kṀ22k2026
10%
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...within two years (e.g. by 6/1/26)?
This is Sam Hammond's Thesis IV/2 from https://www.secondbest.ca/p/ninety-five-theses-on-ai.
I will consider many to mean at least 50%.
If in my subjective judgment this is unclear I will ask at least one open source advocate for their view on how this resolves, and act accordingly.
Resolves to YES if in my subjective judgment, at least half of those who in May 2024 were 'open source advocates,' weighted by prominence, agree that it would be too dangerous to release the weights of what are then SoTA frontier models.
Resolves to NO if this is not true.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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