This market involves two different questions.
Will SB 1047 become law?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve as YES if:
It is signed into law by the Governor of California
Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve as YES if:
Meta releases the full model weights and architecture of a large language model named "Llama 4" or releases a model that is a reasonable observer the successor to Llama 3 (regardless of its name).
AND the released model is made available under an open-source license (e.g., MIT, Apache, GPL)
This market will resolve as NO if:
Meta does not release a model meeting the above criteria by 2029
OR Meta releases the full model weights and architecture of a large language model named "Llama 4" or releases a model that is a reasonable observer the successor to Llama 3 (regardless of its name) and that model is not made available under an open source license.
Additional notes:
The release must include sufficient information and resources to allow independent researchers to run and fine-tune the model.