Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030 according to LeCun?
Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030 according to LeCun?
2
100Ṁ152030
52%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves Yes if any counterexample to Yann's argument is presented and he agrees. Or Yann disavows the above tweet. Or Yann posts an obviously contrary tweet in the future.
A compliment to
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)
93% chance
Will Y. Lecun turn AI doomer by end 2025 ?
8% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
14% chance
Will AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
82% chance
Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
12% chance
Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?
62% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
7% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
11% chance
Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
7% chance