Resolution criteria
This market resolves to the first Starship V3 flight that meets all of SpaceX's stated primary objectives. SpaceX is targeting the first quarter of 2026 for the debut flight of Starship V3, which will be Flight 12. Resolution will be based on SpaceX's official post-flight statements and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship.
Nits
Individual failures (e.g. engine failures, subsystem problems) that don't affect overall flight objectives will not cause a flight to resolve NO. For example, if this market was for block 1 flight 4 it would resolve YES even though the landing was off target.
Update 2026-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The following primary objectives must be met for resolution YES:
Deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites
Relight of a single Raptor engine while in space
Controlled entry, descent, and splashdown in the Indian Ocean
Booster controlled re-entry
Secondary/experimental objectives (e.g. load sensing tiles, heat shield experiments) do not need to be confirmed successful for resolution.
Update 2026-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The controlled entry, descent, and splashdown in the Indian Ocean objective requires the splashdown to be on target (minor deviations, e.g. ~20ft, are acceptable).
Booster controlled re-entry is also a required primary objective for resolution YES.
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re flight 13 stated objectives
https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13
The thirteenth flight test of Starship is preparing to launch as soon as Thursday, July 16. The 90-minute launch window will open at 5:45 p.m. CT.
A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 30 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. As is the case with all developmental testing, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to check in here and stay tuned to our X account for updates.
The upcoming flight will aim to complete similar objectives targeted on the previous flight test, which debuted the Starship and Super Heavy V3 vehicles, while also carrying next-generation Starlink V3 satellites for the first time.
Watch “Critical Path”, the latest episode in the ongoing Starship series that followed SpaceX engineers and technicians through the final days before launch of the first Starship V3.
The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America. There have been several modifications to hardware and software to address issues seen on the previous flight.
At stage separation on Flight 12, slight differences in engine startup on the ship caused the directional flip of the booster to be off by approximately 90 degrees. The startup sequence has been modified to be more robust to timing variability and more reliably flip in the desired direction, which is done to increase overall performance. After stage separation and the flip, the Super Heavy booster attempted its boostback burn. Five of its 33 engines experienced issues when attempting to re-light causing the boostback burn to end early. The Super Heavy on this upcoming flight has hardware modifications to improve re-light reliability along with updates to engine alarms and aborts to match the conditions seen in the multi-engine flight environment.
The Starship upper stage’s primary objectives include the deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites, a relight of a single Raptor engine while in space, and another controlled entry, descent, and splashdown in the Indian Ocean. There have also been several modifications to Starship’s propulsion system to address the engine out issue experienced on the previous flight.
Approximately 40 seconds after stage separation, Starship lost one of its three Raptor vacuum optimized engines. The vehicle was able to demonstrate its engine out capability and reach its planned suborbital trajectory. Several hardware and operational modifications have been made to address the interconnected causes with additional reliability improvements planned in upcoming versions of the Raptor engine.
For the first time, Starship will carry V3 Starlink satellites to space, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. As part of this initial test, Starship is planned to deploy 20 satellites which will extend solar arrays and antennas and will attempt to connect with the larger Starlink constellation via high-capacity lasers. The Starlink satellites will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship and are expected to demise upon reentry approximately 20 minutes after deployment.
Six of the satellites have been modified with a suite of cameras to scan Starship’s heat shield and transmit imagery down to operators to continue testing methods of analyzing Starship’s heat shield readiness for return to launch site on future missions. Several tiles on Starship have been painted white to simulate missing tiles and serve as imaging targets in the test.
Several upgrades and experiments related to Starship’s heatshield will also be tested to continue iteration towards a fully and rapidly reusable design. Multiple tiles will be attached to the metallic side of Starship’s aft flaps along with modified tiles and attachment mechanisms in the heatshield covering the aft skirt to gather flight data on different attachment options. Finally, Starship’s heatshield will have load sensing tiles to take measurements as the vehicle experiences higher dynamic pressure on ascent than previous flights, putting added stress on the tile attachments in exchange for increased payload to orbit capability.
@Kire_
We might well never know whether "load sensing tiles to take measurements" successfully take measurements. Do things like this count as an objective that we have to find out whether successful or not before resolution is possible?
If some things stated above are not relevant or don't need formal SpaceX statement to confirm success in order to resolve, can you list the objectives that matter and how they will resolve if not clear and no statement from SpaceX?
The Starship upper stage’s primary objectives include the deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites, a relight of a single Raptor engine while in space, and another controlled entry, descent, and splashdown in the Indian Ocean
These primary objectives count. The booster must also have a controlled re-entry.
I think that covers all major goals, let me know if I'm missing anything
@Kire_
1. "and another controlled entry, descent, and splashdown in the Indian Ocean"
I would tend to think this covers not only "controlled re-entry" but also splashdown being on target. No video due to ship being off target would be a no? This seems like it may well be important to help allow going to orbit and a future ship catch?
2. "The upcoming flight will aim to complete similar objectives targeted on the previous flight test, which debuted the Starship and Super Heavy V3 vehicles,"
Does the "similar objectives" apply so that we also look to the flight 12 objectives for super heavy which included
""The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf."
Yes it needs to be "on target." If it's off by, for example, 20ft however I would still consider that "on target."
Yes
https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-12
"Following stage separation, the Super Heavy booster performed a directional flip maneuver and attempted its boostback burn. It was unable to light all planned engines and performed a partial boostback burn that ended early. Super Heavy attempted to reignite its engines for the landing burn before experiencing a hard splashdown in the Gulf of America."
Can we take it that this is adequately admitting that boostback and landing burn of booster 19 on flight 12 failed?
Previously that page had included
"The booster’s primary test objective will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. As this is the first flight test of a significantly redesigned vehicle, the booster will not attempt a return to the launch site for catch."
So these seem to be primary objectives for the booster on flight 12 rather than "Individual failures"
Re "Individual failures (e.g. engine failures, subsystem problems) that don't affect overall flight objections will not cause a flight to resolve NO"
I assume you mean 'objectives' rather than "objections".
Not sure if it is worth noting: Dependant multichoice so can't resolve 12 yet or others until there is fully successful attempt.
I would suggest noting whether each flight was successful or not and if not what objectives were considered relevant and failed. e.g. Flight 12 is considered to have failed due to unsuccessful booster boostback and booster landing burn [optionally, from offshore landing point: and booster simulated landing?].
This link has the page from before the flight
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=64957.0;attach=2503833;sess=54281