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Will evidence supporting the existence of a primordial black hole in the outer solar system be published by July 2026?
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Jun 30
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Some hypotheses suggest that a primordial black hole could exist in the outer solar system, potentially explaining anomalies attributed to Planet Nine.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if, by July 29, 2025, one or more peer-reviewed scientific publications report the detection of a specific physical effect predicted by models of a primordial black hole of the appropriate mass and location to explain Planet Nine anomalies. This excludes the gravitational anomalies themselves, focusing instead on effects like characteristic microlensing, predicted particle emission/annihilation signals, or other phenomena uniquely associated with such a PBH.

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https://phys.org/news/2026-06-reanalysis-phoebe-variable-star-primordial.html#google_vignette

@JussiVilleHeiskanen The finding rules out what had appeared to be rare evidence for a primordial black hole and restores consistency with other microlensing surveys.

"Evidence supporting" is pretty vague, arguably there is some evidence supporting it right now, although that support is very weak

@digory fair criticism, updated.

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