Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?
Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?
21
1kṀ7782030
5%
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Resolves to yes if the is a 90% consensus among astronomers that there exists a black hole in the solar system before January 1st 2030.
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Black_hole_(NASA).jpg
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I don't know how to bet. What do you think the current rate would be if you asked astronomers as of today?
@RemNiFHfMN Ooookay. Is this just a "lack of evidence" situation or a "lack of a theory to even support this idea" situation. I'm going to bet no for now though, 7% seems really high even if there is a theory. It takes a long time to get 90% penetration with any idea.
predictedYES 1y
@Eliza In terms of theory: https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.11090
In terms of astronomer consensus, this is more a "lack of evidence" situation. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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