Will we discover a black hole in our solar system before 2030?

1kṀ778

2030

chance

ALL

Resolves to yes if the is a 90% consensus among astronomers that there exists a black hole in the solar system before January 1st 2030.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Black_hole_(NASA).jpg

Space

Science

Astronomy

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh75ubECL8I

I don't know how to bet. What do you think the current rate would be if you asked astronomers as of today?

predictedYES

@Eliza currently i'd assume fewer than 1%, since there is (almost) no evidence so far. It would be interesting to do a poll if more evidence appears.

@RemNiFHfMN Ooookay. Is this just a "lack of evidence" situation or a "lack of a theory to even support this idea" situation. I'm going to bet no for now though, 7% seems really high even if there is a theory. It takes a long time to get 90% penetration with any idea.

predictedYES

@Eliza In terms of theory: https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.11090
In terms of astronomer consensus, this is more a "lack of evidence" situation. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.