Will there be an assassination attempt (not just an uncovered plot) against an elected official in the United States during 2022?
14
7
αΉ€120
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

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sold αΉ€103 of NO

I think this should probably resolve YES iff news comes out that the attack on Paul Pelosi with the demands to know where Nancy Pelosi was, was with the original intention of killing her (as opposed to merely kidnap or threaten or similar) before the assailant failed to find her.

predicted NO

This claims that the intent was not to kill: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/paul-pelosi-attack-federal-charges-assault-attempted-kidnapping-state-charges-watch-live-stream-today-2022-10-31/

bought αΉ€14 of YES

https://apnews.com/article/paul-pelosi-assaulted-156ece77186eb11b97260af3c5122f67

I don't expect this to resolve the market since Speaker Pelosi wasn't present, but it... definitely updates me.

Clarity needed on whether any attack or attempt on any level of elected politician counts (i.e., does some random personal dispute count as an assassination attempt).

@Treldman The attacker would have to be previously unknown to target and yes, any level of generally elected official.

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