Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
39
1kṀ5056Jan 1
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This can be any head of Government - Federal, State, or Local. ie. President, Governor, or Mayors only. Those elected in 2024 who have not yet taken office at the end of the year also counts (ex. President-elect). It must be a successful assassination, attempts don't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
17% chance
Will Trump be assassinated during his second term?
13% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
2% chance
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
Will there be any assassination attempt on Donald Trump during the term of his presidency?
59% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Sort by:
@BTE No, the last mayor listed as assassinated on Wikipedia was Mike Swoboda in 2008. Wikipedia may not be perfect, but he was the mayor of a tiny town in Missouri so I figure it likely mayors of tiny towns get listed there.
@4mur1c4 people have been saying saying that for a bit too long for me to care.
I can't think of a time the world's been mild.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
17% chance
Will Trump be assassinated during his second term?
13% chance
Will there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
68% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
Will Donald Trump be assassinated before the end of his presidency?
2% chance
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
Any US president (current or former) is assassinated before 2030?
10% chance
Will there be any assassination attempt on Donald Trump during the term of his presidency?
59% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance