Will there be an assassination of a US head of Government by the end of 2024?
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1kṀ5056Jan 1
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This can be any head of Government - Federal, State, or Local. ie. President, Governor, or Mayors only. Those elected in 2024 who have not yet taken office at the end of the year also counts (ex. President-elect). It must be a successful assassination, attempts don't count.
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@BTE No, the last mayor listed as assassinated on Wikipedia was Mike Swoboda in 2008. Wikipedia may not be perfect, but he was the mayor of a tiny town in Missouri so I figure it likely mayors of tiny towns get listed there.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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