Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if NASA officially launches or completes an "Artemis III" (or "Artemis 3") mission with the explicit objective of landing on Mars, and this landing occurs on or before June 30, 2027.

This market will resolve to NO if Artemis III does not result in a Mars landing by June 30, 2027. This includes scenarios where the mission is delayed past this date, canceled, or proceeds with its current parameters—such as a Low Earth Orbit demonstration or a Moon-focused mission—without landing on Mars.

The primary source of truth for the mission's official status and objectives will be the NASA Artemis III Mission Page and official NASA press releases.

Background

The Artemis program is NASA's initiative to establish a long-term human presence on the Moon as a stepping stone toward eventual crewed missions to Mars.

As planned, Artemis III is scheduled for launch in 2027. However, the mission is designed as a crewed demonstration flight in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) rather than a deep space landing mission. Its core objective is to test rendezvous and docking capabilities between the Orion spacecraft and commercial Human Landing Systems (HLS) developed by SpaceX and Blue Origin in Earth orbit. It does not have a Mars landing profile, as actual crewed Mars exploration remains a long-term goal scheduled for subsequent decades.