Will humans land on mars by 2028? | Manifold

Will humans land on mars by 2028?

21

1kṀ645

2028

4%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Hank and John Green have a semi-famous bet on their podcast on this topic. Hank wins (and this market resolves YES) if any human has stepped foot on Mars by January 1st 2028. John wins (and this market resolves NO) otherwise.

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The way launch windows to Mars work, realistically, a mission to Mars would launch in late 2028 and arrive in 2029, assuming cargo is sent to Mars in the 2024 and 2026 windows. So even though I am very optimistic about Mars timelines, I still am betting no.

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