Hank and John Green have a semi-famous bet on their podcast on this topic. Hank wins (and this market resolves YES) if any human has stepped foot on Mars by January 1st 2028. John wins (and this market resolves NO) otherwise.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
22% chance
Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?
64% chance
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?
40% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2039?
45% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?
46% chance
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2028?
26% chance
When will the first humans land on Mars?
2042
Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?
56% chance
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?
15% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2042?
50% chance