Will Israel strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz by the end of 2024.
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Jan 1
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bought Ṁ250 NO

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/iran-israel-destroyed-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility

Given that this was at Parchin and not Natanz, I take it this will not resolve the market?

sold Ṁ523 YES

@DanielFox9fff yep exactly, that was a misread from me trying to hedge my losses…

This market revolved YES

Looking for backup info. Reserve the right to trade this in the meantime

bought Ṁ50 YES

I’m buying more, is that against the rules?

bought Ṁ50 YES

Want to hear the case from the NO folks before I resolve this one way or another

bought Ṁ100 NO

There's no evidence of the resolution critera being met. 🤷‍♂️

How did the other market resolve then?

Its criterion was "military or nuclear facilities". This criterion is specifically "nuclear facilities in Natanz". Is there any indication a nuclear facility was hit?

good point! Leaving it open thanks

prolly will resolve to this one unless something weird happens

https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-israel-hit-iranian-nuclear-sit

lets hope 57% is too high.

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