This market resolves YES if Canada formally submits an application to join the European Union as a member state before January 20, 2029, as documented by official EU or Canadian government sources. Resolution will be based on the European Commission's or the Government of Canada's official statements.
The application must be a formal submission following EU membership application procedures, not just exploratory talks or informal expressions of interest.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Canada must submit an application that explicitly or implicitly seeks a final status involving the phrase "member state".
The application must explicitly or implicitly seek voting rights in the European Council or Parliament.
Examples:
If Canada applied to be a standard member state (without using any new modifiers like "associate"), this resolves YES since voting rights are implied.
If Canada applied to be an "associate member state" (or proposed some other new form of membership), the application would also need to state that they expect voting rights to resolve this YES.
If Canada applied only to be a EEA member or for inclusion in Schengen (or some other arrangement without voting rights in the European Council or Parliament), this does not resolve YES.
1,000
3.00What if they plan to become an "associate member"?
@MalachiteEagle Good question. For the purposes of this question, Canada must
submit an application that explicitly or implicitly seeks a final status involving the phrase "member state", AND
the application must explicitly or implicitly seek voting rights in the European Council or Parliament
Some examples of how this could play out:
If Canada applied to be a standard member state (without using any new modifiers like "associate") this resolves YES since voting rights are implied.
If Canada applied to be an "associate member state" (or proposed some other new form of membership), the application would also need to state that they expect voting rights to resolve this YES.
If Canada applied only to be a EEA member or for inclusion in Schengen (or some other arrangement without voting rights in the European Council or Parliament), this does not resolve YES.
(thanks for asking - researching this taught me that Norway and Switzerland aren't technically member states and don't have voting rights, though they do participate in the Schengen area and other things)