Resolution criteria

Accession negotiations officially opened on 25 June 2024, and the market resolves YES if Ukraine becomes a full member of the European Union before January 1, 2029. Resolution will be determined by official EU announcements confirming Ukraine's accession as a member state. The market resolves NO if Ukraine has not achieved full membership by December 31, 2028.

Background

Ukraine applied for membership of the European Union on 28 February 2022, four days after it was invaded by Russia. The European Council granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the EU on 23 June 2022. Accession negotiations officially opened on 25 June 2024, and as of September 2025, the screening process has been completed.

The negotiation stage takes over five years on average. Historical precedent varies widely: Austria, Finland, and Sweden completed it faster than any other countries in EU history, needing less than two years, while Croatia took more than seven years. European Council President Charles Michel stated that if both sides "do their homework," Ukraine could become an EU member by 2030.

Considerations

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated there is strong political will in Brussels to accelerate Ukraine's EU integration, with the EU already "moving two to three times faster" than in previous years. However, Hungary has recurrently vetoed Ukraine's accession, which Kyiv and Brussels are working to overcome. The changes in state priorities triggered by the Russian invasion have reduced the system's ability to reform, which could impact the pace of negotiations despite accelerated timelines.