How many parameters will GPT-4 have?
58
669
3.3k
resolved May 12
100%94%
>1600
0.0%Other
0.0%
300
0.1%
350-400
0.0%
401-450
0.0%
451-500
0.0%
501-550
0.0%
551-600
0.0%
601-700
0.0%
701-800
0.0%
801-1000
0.2%
1001-1200
0.2%
1201-1400
0.6%
1401-1600
3%
801-1600
0.4%
301-349 or <300
0.1%
1200B exactly
1.0%
1000B-1400B
0.1%
Yes

GPT-3 has a staggering 175 BILLION parameters


To put it into context
Hugging face's 176 Billion parameter model took 3.5 months on 384 top-of-the-line GPUs to train...

GPT-3 is also over 2 years old.

Nov 17, 1:56am: How many parameters with GPT-4 have? → How many parameters will GPT-4 have?

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creator inactive - resolving to >1600

@shankypanky just for curiosity, what source did you use?

@Lorenzo fair question! as this market - Will GPT-4 have over 1 trillion parameters? - resolved yes, >1600 is the only suitable option here

bought Ṁ10 of N/A

Why there's a 801-1600 option, and 4 separate 801-1000, 1001-1200, 1201-1400, 1401-1600 options? How will this resolve if iGPT-4 has, say, 1050 parameters? Both the wide and the narrow options will be chosen? With which weights?

bought Ṁ5 of N/A

This market is weird.

bought Ṁ155 of N/A

@MayMeta GPT-4 recommends weighting by the reciprocal of the interval length.

i.e. The 800-wide entry should get a weight of 1/800 if the answer is in there. A 100-wide entry would get a weight of 1/100, so 8x more.

I also notice that there are answers that overlap with each other @JustinKwong

The units for these answers are in B of parameters, right??? @JustinTorre

bought Ṁ10 of N/A

If GPT-4 is a MoE model it will probably have >1600B parameters.

Hugging face's 176 Billion parameter model took 3.5 months on 384 top-of-the-line GPUs to train...

Note that HuggingFace's model was trained on 350B tokens. The Chinchilla optimal amount of tokens for a 175B model is 3500B tokens, so 10x as much!

Started one with a numeric answer:

in billions, I assume?

@Nikola Bars (300-350, 350-400, 400-450) seem better for this kind of market, right?

bought Ṁ1 of N/A

@Nikola Or just a market for a numerical value