Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th?
➕
Plus
190
Ṁ36k
Feb 21
92%
chance

Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated February 20th, 2025 (or next available data point after Feb 20th) on 538's approval tracker.

Such a page does not currently exist for Donald Trump's second term, but is expected to be published after inauguration. For reference, see past trackers https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ and https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/. If 538 does not publish a tracker by February 20th, a suitable alternative tracker will be used.

  • Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Data Source:

    • RCP (RealClearPolitics) will be used as the backup option if 538 does not maintain the presidential approval tracker.

    • For reference, RCP currently has Biden approval about 1% higher than 538.

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filled a Ṁ100 NO at 58% order

why 45 specifically, why not 50% or higher

@littleMAHER1 during his first term his 538 approval tracker never rose above 45.8%

genuinely surprised that it's still +5.1 like dude the working class has been thoroughly shafted by his first-day EOs, what are you still sucking him off for

@Gameknight Real-world events take time to show up in polls, but you also gotta consider that the really unpopular EOs (like renaming the Gulf of Mexico, killing the Department of Education) haven't really gone into effect yet in any way that's actually visible to most people, outside of news buffs.

@Marnix so what you're saying is that the rhineland is being remilitarized and once again everybody ignores it until they cross.

That's nice. I quit. This country is f*cked.

@Gameknight I may stand corrected, actually. I think his Gaza statements will, bare minimum, lose him the goodwill of the people who wanted a ceasefire and fooled themselves into thinking Trump would be good for Gaza when he got one.

@Marnix oh boy, they don't care that the children are f*cking fools, but woah, supporting a specific side of a war in another continent is crossing the line??? What has America come to?

@Gameknight I'm with you, the guy has rugged shitcoins to his supporters, pissed over his biggest trade partners, done insane shits all over, deportations, the education stuff, honestly the list is just too long to name... the fact his approval rate is this high is just delusional and exactly how Germany went last time...

@Choms Yeah...

"Ever wonder what you would have done in 1940s Germany? Hint: It's exactly what you're doing right now."

@Gameknight "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters"

bought Ṁ250 YES

How will this resolve if 538 shuts down or is no longer maintaining a presidential approval tracker?

@JaySocrates RCP would be the most likely backup option. For reference, RCP currently has Biden about 1% higher than 538.

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