None of the approval polls is weaker than 47% and there are only 3 days left. 17th Presidents’ Day unlikely to have polls. Likely only one poll or at most two released and they will not move the average score much. Could even have no new polls until Friday or week after

Thought this was interesting

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/51589-donald-trump-popularity-democrats-response-elon-musk-doge-gaza-israel-palestinians-february-9-11-2025-economist-yougov-poll

why 45 specifically, why not 50% or higher

@littleMAHER1 during his first term his 538 approval tracker never rose above 45.8%

genuinely surprised that it's still +5.1 like dude the working class has been thoroughly shafted by his first-day EOs, what are you still sucking him off for

@Gameknight Real-world events take time to show up in polls, but you also gotta consider that the really unpopular EOs (like renaming the Gulf of Mexico, killing the Department of Education) haven't really gone into effect yet in any way that's actually visible to most people, outside of news buffs.

@Marnix so what you're saying is that the rhineland is being remilitarized and once again everybody ignores it until they cross.

That's nice. I quit. This country is f*cked.

@Gameknight I may stand corrected, actually. I think his Gaza statements will, bare minimum, lose him the goodwill of the people who wanted a ceasefire and fooled themselves into thinking Trump would be good for Gaza when he got one.

@Marnix oh boy, they don't care that the children are f*cking fools, but woah, supporting a specific side of a war in another continent is crossing the line??? What has America come to?

@Gameknight I'm with you, the guy has rugged shitcoins to his supporters, pissed over his biggest trade partners, done insane shits all over, deportations, the education stuff, honestly the list is just too long to name... the fact his approval rate is this high is just delusional and exactly how Germany went last time...

@Choms Yeah...

"Ever wonder what you would have done in 1940s Germany? Hint: It's exactly what you're doing right now."

@Gameknight "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters"

@Choms Why would you think the deportations would be unpopular to US citizens? Unpopular to illegal migrants sure but they are not a majority.

Maybe it is very popular compared to Biden policies seemingly maximising migrants to import democrat votes?

@ChristopherRandles yeah deportations are unfortunately fairly popular (for now, at least — I'd wait and watch how they're covered). The editorialization here feels counterproductive though

@Marnix "editorialization here feels counterproductive though"
seems a nicely toned down language for saying "seemingly maximising migrants to import democrat votes" is somewhat throwing a grenade into conversation. While I accept that to some extent, given expletive laden panning of Trump posted here so far, I didn't think a gentle mild response was going to get anywhere. Anyway good on you for trying to reduce the antagonization.

@ChristopherRandles "Why would you think the deportations would be unpopular to US citizens? Unpopular to illegal migrants sure but they are not a majority."

#1, flagrant violation of constitutional rights, although I'm sure the MAGAts don't really care

#2, more importantly, a lot of farmers are losing their migrant workforce. Why do you think food prices are going up? It's because the migrant farmers aren't showing up to work anymore.

@Gameknight
1 That may be what democrats think. Certainly compassion for and constitutional rights for refugees is appropriate. If we are mainly discussing illegal immigrants, law breaking to enter US, what constitutional rights should they have? Still some compassion sure but can compassion go too far, to the point that it is the ordinary law abiding US citizen that is being discriminated against?

2. Business owners and farmers can be added to the list who don't like deportations. So illegal immigrants, business owners and farmers, do you think you are getting anywhere close to a majority of voters yet?

Re food prices, yes that may happen in future assuming deportations ramp up but as an explanation for food price inflation of the last few years when there were increased migrants under Biden and deportations only started a couple of weeks ago, outside harvest season, that seems a bit of a stretch don't you think? What about other issues like crime that may well come with too great a rate of new illegal immigrants?

@ChristopherRandles every white person in the USA is originally an "illegal migrant" 😂

but yea, I get it, I mean, there's this one videogame where empathy is a superpower (sigh), I was honestly just adding it to the list out of decency but have your pick, from rape to exploitation, the guy has done everything, nothing really matters to people, regardless of how relatively popular each of them are

@ChristopherRandles Regarding deportations, a lot of migrants stopped showing up to work the moment Trump got into office out of fear of ICE - and ICE did indeed ramp up.

Although yes, you do make a good point that illegal immigrants and farmers aren't anywhere near a majority, the ripple effects of increased deportations should be clear to everyone in the nation.

@Gameknight
>"the ripple effects of increased deportations should be clear to everyone in the nation."

Yes expectation of effects is certainly possible. I suggest for majority, less competition for the jobs you want and lower crime outweighs some increased food and other prices. Then there are feelings of US tax dollars being spent on assisting illegal immigrants rather than on US citizens.

Obviously popular seems to me to be the sensible reaction/assessment of deportations rather than one of a list of Trump crazy policies that should make everyone mad at him.

@ChristopherRandles

Before you talk, please have a solid factual basis:
https://news.wisc.edu/undocumented-immigrants-far-less-likely-to-commit-crimes-in-u-s-than-citizens/ - the chart says it all

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-labor-market-impact-of-deportations/ - "The prevailing view used to be that foreign-born and U.S.-born workers are substitutes, meaning that when one foreign-born worker takes a job, there is one less job for a U.S.-born worker. But economists have now shown several reasons why the economy is not a zero-sum game: because unauthorized immigrants work in different occupations from the U.S.-born, because they create demand for goods and services, and because they contribute to the long-run fiscal health of the country. [...] unauthorized immigrants take low-paying, dangerous and otherwise less attractive jobs more frequently than both U.S.-born workers and authorized immigrant workers."

Undocumented immigrants far less likely to commit crimes in U.S. than citizens

Crime rates among undocumented immigrants are just a fraction of those of their U.S.-born neighbors, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis of Texas arrest and conviction records.

@ChristopherRandles that narrative doesn't hold up. Immigrants net create jobs, and illegal immigrants in particular are often not competing for jobs others want anyhow (some are, but they still have fewer options than legal residents/citizens). Aside from simply being in the country illegally, they also commit fewer crimes per capita (which is just basic sense: they have more to lose). Don't be fooled by the media focusing on the occasional exception; the statistics are well studied.

To be clear, this is NOT advocating for open borders; the fact that immigration (legal or otherwise) is hard is an important filter. But really, is it at all surprising that people with means and drive to move to the US are good to have here?

Anyhow, all that is to say, people who are bamboozled by Trump's narratives may think well of prioritizing mass deportations but unless they are very selective about who they deport, this will still be bad for both employment and inflation, and mostly a wash on crime (more per capita, though less in absolute terms). Some of that will take longer than a week to show up (much less show up in polling), but prices and availability of labor are already being affected.

538 tracker is now available here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/

How will this resolve if 538 shuts down or is no longer maintaining a presidential approval tracker?

@JaySocrates RCP would be the most likely backup option. For reference, RCP currently has Biden about 1% higher than 538.