Market will resolve to YES if 45.0% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated February 20th, 2025 (or next available data point after Feb 20th) on 538's approval tracker.
Such a page does not currently exist for Donald Trump's second term, but is expected to be published after inauguration. For reference, see past trackers https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ and https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/. If 538 does not publish a tracker by February 20th, a suitable alternative tracker will be used.
Update 2025-08-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Data Source:
RCP (RealClearPolitics) will be used as the backup option if 538 does not maintain the presidential approval tracker.
For reference, RCP currently has Biden approval about 1% higher than 538.
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Data Source Update:
The 538 approval tracker is now available: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,685 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,267 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,075 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,047 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,000 |