Market will resolve to YES if 44.1% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated October 1st, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Notes:
Data will be checked within 24 hours after market close.
If the approval dips below 44.1% at some point, but rises back above by October 1st, the market will still resolve to YES.
In the unlikely event that the Silver Bulletin tracker is no longer available or updated, the RCP tracker here will be used as a substitute: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
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@Magnify it's updated every weekday - don't think it did spike to 46, you might have been looking at the immigration approval tracker?
@brod ah yeah I think I looked at something different when this market went higher and just ran with it without confirming
@TheWabiSabi Americans relish when they can inflict suffering upon others, so naturally any President that makes other people suffer will see great approval ratings.
@TheWabiSabi Half of Americans think he's a pig fucker. The other half of Americans also think he's a pig fucker, but think it's great to have a pig fucker in charge, so long as he doesn't fuck their pig.
Every day, he's out there indiscriminately fucking pigs. Whose pigs he fucked makes a marginal difference in approval ratings, for the goldfish-long moment where someone realizes that their pig just got fucked, and that they should be upset about this.
@TheWabiSabi the same polls that said Trump would lose in 2024 by 8 points are now saying Trump only has 42 points of approval. The actual elections was lost. Are Trump and his policies unpopular? Pollsters and models—including Silver’s—systematically underrepresented Trump’s support, particularly in battleground states. Is it a good strategy to underestimate your enemy ?Pretend there will be an easy win in the midterms. Nov 3, 2026. midterms. Nov 8, 2028 next election.
Polling was just wrong in 2016 and started getting gamed a lot starting in 2018.
Another example of polling warfare is the effort not to use Rasmussen Reports polls, a firm that was much more accurate than many of the other pollsters this cycle. Last March, FiveThirtyEight made that decision. [ABC Cancelled FiveThirtyEight for polling after this last election]
It is worth noting that only two polls called the popular vote nearly exactly as the Washington Examiner‘s Paul Bedard noted: Rasmussen Reports and the Wall Street Journal. Both had the final vote of 49% for Trump and 46% for Harris. Trump won 50% to 47%.
Rasmussen Reports now has trump at 50 approval and 48 disapproval.
Yougov had some of the largest bias for Harris and Dems and they are reporting Trump at 39% approval.
https://www.racket.news/p/how-americas-accurate-election-polls