This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Canadian province of Alberta holds a referendum in which a majority of voters cast ballots in favour of Alberta's independence from Canada. If no such referendum occurs by the specified date, or if a province-wide referendum with at least 33% voter turnout is held prior to the date and declared defeated, the market will resolve to NO.

The referendum does not have to be legally binding or ultimately result in succession. Many similar independence referendums around the world have had questionable legal binding basis.