Resolves YES if the California Independence Plebiscite Initiative (or any other initiative with the goal of advancing California independence) is voted on in the 2026 election in California. Practically, this means: It must get enough signatures to be placed on the ballot It must survive all legal challenges stopping it from being placed on the ballot or having votes on it being counted

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (36 traders, as of Oct 20, 2026).

Will California independence be voted on in 2026?

MANIFOLD

Will California independence be voted on in 2026?

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Nov 4

1.4%

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Resolves YES if the California Independence Plebiscite Initiative (or any other initiative with the goal of advancing California independence) is voted on in the 2026 election in California.

Practically, this means:

It must get enough signatures to be placed on the ballot
It must survive all legal challenges stopping it from being placed on the ballot or having votes on it being counted

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