Will any part of Canada join the United States by 2026?
Will any part of Canada join the United States by 2026?
19
100Ṁ13762026
1.4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if any geographic region currently part of Canada officially becomes part of the United States before January 1, 2026. This includes:
Any Canadian province or territory
Any municipality or regional district
Any First Nations reserve land
The change must be legally recognized by both the United States and Canadian governments. The market will resolve NO if no part of Canada officially joins the United States by January 1, 2026
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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