Will an AI system similar to Auto-GPT make a successful attempt to kill a human by 2030? | Manifold

Will an AI system similar to Auto-GPT make a successful attempt to kill a human by 2030?

35

1kṀ1824

2031

24%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

By default resolves NO; the burden of proof is on the YES side.

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This should be so illegal 💀

Related:

https://manifold.markets/LachlanMunro/will-an-agentized-llm-cause-some-ch?r=TGFjaGxhbk11bnJv

What counts as "similar to"? Does it need to be a prompting scaffolding around a GPT-based language model?

@tailcalled I think the main point is that it should arrive at this decision completely autonomously. Even if a specific task was given to the AI by humans, it is not one where killing a human is an expected outcome. E.g. military AI would not count but paperclip producing AI would.

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Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

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