Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year 

He gets impeached during his second term.

Republicans win a majority in the House in 2026.

Republicans win a majority in the Senate in 2026.

The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.

He has a higher approval rating, according to 538, at the end of his second term than he did at the end of his first term. (if 538 stops existing, use the best available source instead)

The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.

The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024

Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

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