Eliezer Yudkowsky creates or reveals a public Metaculus profile before 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

Eliezer Yudkowsky creates or reveals a public Metaculus profile before 2023?

9%

chance

Context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records Resolves Yes if he created, or revealed, a public Metaculus profile (i.e. where he's explicit that it's his profile) before 2023, to my knowledge. Otherwise No.

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

My bet: Manifold has better memes.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Am I missing something? Isn't this Eliezer's profile? https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky

is predicting YES at 34%

@Nikola Oh damn misread the title.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

Em of the Night ☑️

sold Ṁ4 NO at 9%

NoUsernameSelected

bought Ṁ50 NO from 10% to 9%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

sold Ṁ121 NO from 8% to 10%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 8%

sold Ṁ9 NO at 8%

bought Ṁ5 NO at 8%

bought Ṁ15 NO at 8%

sold Ṁ36 NO at 8%

NoUsernameSelected

bought Ṁ50 NO at 8%

sold Ṁ25 NO at 8%

bought Ṁ25 NO at 8%

sold Ṁ4 YES from 10% to 8%

bought Ṁ50 NO from 12% to 10%

sold Ṁ50 NO from 10% to 12%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 10% (cancelled)

sold Ṁ45 YES from 25% to 6%

Johnny Ten-Numbers

sold Ṁ77 YES from 60% to 25%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 YES at 60%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 70% to 59%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 73% to 70%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ50 YES at 73% (cancelled)

Johnny Ten-Numbers

bought Ṁ100 YES from 34% to 72%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ32/Ṁ100 NO at 34% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 7% to 44%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 7%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 8% to 7%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 8%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 8%

bought Ṁ15 NO from 9% to 8%

filled limit order Ṁ60/Ṁ60 NO at 9%

sold Ṁ1 NO at 11%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 12% to 11%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 13% to 12%

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 13% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 14% to 13%

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 15% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 91% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 93% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ88 NO at 65% (cancelled)