Eliezer Yudkowsky creates or reveals a public Metaculus profile before 2023?
Culture
40
67
Ṁ445
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records Resolves Yes if he created, or revealed, a public Metaculus profile (i.e. where he's explicit that it's his profile) before 2023, to my knowledge. Otherwise No.
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predicted NO

As far as I'm aware, this has not happened. Resolving "No".

predicted NO

No revealed profile as of market close.

predicted NO

@EdwardKmett Not sure why the close time was set to 1 day earlier. I'll wait until the new year to resolve, since the criteria was "before 2023".

sold Ṁ62 of NO

Only m500 incentive for him to make such a market. I don't think it's enough but now that he's using Manifold a bit, maybe 10% is right.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

My bet: Manifold has better memes.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Am I missing something? Isn't this Eliezer's profile? https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky

predicted YES

@Nikola Oh damn misread the title.

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