Jotto999 avatar
closes Dec 31
Eliezer Yudkowsky creates or reveals a public Metaculus profile before 2023?
9%
chance
Context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records Resolves Yes if he created, or revealed, a public Metaculus profile (i.e. where he's explicit that it's his profile) before 2023, to my knowledge. Otherwise No.
Sort by:
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ50 of NO

My bet: Manifold has better memes.

Nikola avatar
Nikola
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Am I missing something? Isn't this Eliezer's profile? https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky

Nikola avatar
Nikola
is predicting YES at 34%

@Nikola Oh damn misread the title.