It doesn't matter if he is President or not when he says it

Any qualifying remarks must be congruent with the title. Remarks that go further, ie 'We should not help Taiwan' would qualify. Remarks that seem to go less far but imply the title, ie 'We should send military aid' would not qualify.

In the extremely unlikely event that Trump specifies the US should only not intervene if China invades outlying islands this will not resolve YES.

I will not bet and will judge whether the market has been met.