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27% chance. Breaking story. Unsubstantiated but picked up by legacy media already. Will resolve N/A if there was no attack. If there was an attack but it wasn't a stabbing the title will update (ditto other conceivable variations) https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1712737562853507334?s=20 Update (resolution): I want to address how this will resolve: Ideally we would wait until that individual was found guilty, or at the very least charged. However, this is China and that process can be long and opaque (especially when politically sensitive). So. I will resolve NO if the individual ('the foreigner') is named and this ID is not disputed by relevant parties (let's say embassies in Beijing, the Palestinian Authority and major media outlets). If the individual is not named by the end of the year, I will search for other ways that might satisfy me, a reasonable person that the question should resolve NO or YES. Only as an absolute last resort will I resolve N/A. To this end I am taking the two following steps: I am extending the close date from November 8th to December 31st. I am selling all my shares, so that at closure I can make an uninfluenced decision.