China/HK have new laws that criminalize things including tweets made outside of their jurisdiction. Some westerners believe it is now dangerous to travel there.
This market resolves to "yes" if China (or one of its territories, such as Hong Kong) convicts a foreign national (excluding dual nationals of China/HK and another country) under their respective National Security Laws before the end of 2026.
In the case of new national security laws, these are also covered.
FYI, China doesn’t allow dual nationality. So you get cases like Cheng Lei, an Australian citizen convicted under mainland NSL, but also, she was a former state media reporter, so a little bit of a different situation to your average westerner. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheng_Lei_(journalist))
If her case is enough to satisfy the question, let me know and I’ll bid it up.