
China/HK have new laws that criminalize things including tweets made outside of their jurisdiction. Some westerners believe it is now dangerous to travel there.
This market resolves to "yes" if China (or one of its territories, such as Hong Kong) convicts a foreign national (excluding dual nationals of China/HK and another country) under their respective National Security Laws before the end of 2026.
In the case of new national security laws, these are also covered.
People are also trading
@mfow Would the Japanese Astellas employee's July 16, 2025 espionage conviction qualify under your Cheng Lei clarification? Japan's MFA confirms the conviction and 3½-year sentence in Beijing. One scope question: China's original official statement cited the Criminal Law and Counterespionage Law, rather than a statute titled National Security Law. Does your criterion include that type of mainland espionage conviction? I hold no position.
Conviction: https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/kaiken/kaikenwe_000001_00179.html
Statutes cited at detention: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202405/t20240530_11347491.html
FYI, China doesn’t allow dual nationality. So you get cases like Cheng Lei, an Australian citizen convicted under mainland NSL, but also, she was a former state media reporter, so a little bit of a different situation to your average westerner. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheng_Lei_(journalist))
If her case is enough to satisfy the question, let me know and I’ll bid it up.