Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028 | Manifold

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

1

Ṁ1kṀ10

2027

41%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If there is credible reporting of the CCP blocking a public release (weights and API access) of a large language model from a Chinese AI lab before January 1st 2028 the market resolves to Yes.

The government must have intervened to temporarily or permanently stop the lab from releasing a model on the date they anticipated. Safety checks do not count unless they are not expected by the lab and significantly delay the release.

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