Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2024?
Basic
7
Ṁ700Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Currently NET November 2024, on a Falcon Heavy. I don't expect problems with the Falcon, but any issues with the payload readiness would push this date to NET 2025.
Northrop Grumman is building the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) module, and Maxar is building the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE). Northrop will assemble them and prepare them for launch on a single Falcon Heavy. Batteries for HALO come from Japan (JAXA), robotic arm interfaces from Canada, Halo Lunar Communication System (HLCS) from ESA, all going into that single HALO. Northrop has experience building Cygnus but that's a cargo vehicle. Plenty of places for delays to creep in.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch in 2025?
18% chance
Will the first Lunar Gateway modules launch later than 2025?
80% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be cancelled before 2026?
53% chance
Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?
24% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2035?
23% chance
Will Lunar Gateway be visited by a non-Artemis crew before 2030?
19% chance
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2024?
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
28% chance
Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?
31% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2027?
66% chance