Background

Rodrigo Duterte served as President of the Philippines from 2016 to 2022. During his presidency, he launched a controversial "war on drugs" that resulted in thousands of deaths. The International Criminal Court (ICC) opened an investigation into alleged crimes against humanity committed during this campaign.

In March 2018, the Philippines officially notified the UN of its withdrawal from the Rome Statute (the treaty that established the ICC), which took effect in March 2019. Despite this withdrawal, the ICC maintains that it retains jurisdiction over crimes committed while the Philippines was a member.

The ICC investigation focuses on allegations that Duterte's administration conducted a systematic attack against civilians as part of the drug war. The ICC has issued an arrest warrant, and Duterte was arrested on March 11 2025. He could potentially face extradition to The Hague, where the ICC is based.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Rodrigo Duterte is physically transferred to The Hague, Netherlands, to face trial at the International Criminal Court at any time before January 1, 2030.

The market will resolve as NO if:

• Duterte is not extradited to The Hague before January 1, 2030

• Duterte dies before being extradited

• The ICC drops all charges against Duterte

• The ICC investigation is terminated for any reason

For clarity, "extradition" in this context means the physical transfer of Duterte to ICC custody in The Hague, not merely the issuance of an arrest warrant or the beginning of extradition proceedings.

Considerations

Several factors could influence the outcome:

• The current Philippine government's stance on cooperating with the ICC

• Future Philippine administrations' positions (especially after the 2028 elections)

• Potential diplomatic negotiations or immunity agreements

• Duterte's health (he is currently 79 years old)

• Legal challenges to the ICC's jurisdiction over crimes committed after the Philippines' withdrawal from the Rome Statute