Background
Nayib Bukele is the President of El Salvador who gained international attention for his controversial anti-gang crackdown known as the "regime of exception," which began in March 2022. While his tough-on-crime approach has dramatically reduced gang violence and earned him widespread domestic popularity, human rights organizations have documented numerous abuses including arbitrary detentions, torture, and deaths in custody.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague prosecutes individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and crimes of aggression. Currently, there are no known formal investigations or proceedings by the ICC against Bukele or his administration.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if:
Nayib Bukele is physically extradited to The Hague, Netherlands to face charges at the International Criminal Court before January 1, 2035.
This market resolves to NO if:
Bukele is not extradited to The Hague before January 1, 2035.
Bukele is extradited to another international court not located in The Hague.
Bukele faces domestic prosecution or extradition to a country other than the Netherlands.
Bukele dies before any potential extradition to The Hague occurs.
Considerations
For extradition to The Hague to occur, several steps would need to happen:
The ICC would need to open a formal investigation into Bukele's actions
The ICC would need to issue an arrest warrant
El Salvador or a country Bukele is visiting would need to comply with the extradition request
El Salvador is not currently a member of the ICC, having withdrawn in 2016, which creates an additional hurdle for potential prosecution. However, the ICC could still potentially claim jurisdiction if crimes were committed in a member state or if the UN Security Council refers the case.
1,000