Resolves YES if, during the window, the International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant against any person who is an active world leader (as defined below) at the time the warrant is issued, and who was not already the subject of a publicly known ICC arrest warrant as of this market's open. Otherwise resolves NO.

Who counts ("active world leader"). The person must, at the moment the warrant is issued, currently hold the office of head of state or head of government of a UN-member sovereign state — president, prime minister, reigning monarch serving as head of state, or the de jure or de facto top national leader in office at that time. Excluded: former leaders no longer in office at issuance; ministers and other cabinet/government officials; military officers, commissioners, or other officials; sub-national leaders; and leaders of non-state actors or non-UN-member entities.

Already-warranted leaders excluded. Because Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu (and any other leader already under a publicly known ICC warrant at market open) are pre-existing, a new warrant is required against a different qualifying leader. A second/additional warrant against a leader who already had one at market open does not count.

What counts as "issued." The warrant must be an arrest warrant actually issued by the Court (a Pre-Trial Chamber), not a request, application, or summons by the Office of the Prosecutor, and not a mere announcement of an investigation. The operative date is the date the ICC issues the warrant.

Sealed warrants. A warrant issued under seal counts only once its existence is officially confirmed or unsealed by the ICC and that confirmation occurs on or before December 31, 2029. A warrant whose existence is not officially confirmed until after the deadline does not count, even if it is later revealed to have been issued during the window (unless the spirit clause clearly applies).

Source of record. Resolution relies on the ICC's official channels (icc-cpi.int — press releases, case pages, situation pages).

Resolution timing. May resolve YES early as soon as a qualifying warrant is officially issued/confirmed within the window. Otherwise resolves NO after December 31, 2029.

Judgment. Where these criteria are unambiguous, the criteria govern. Where ambiguous or contradictory, the market resolves to its spirit — "did the ICC issue a fresh arrest warrant against a person who, at the time, was serving as a country's top leader, by the end of 2029." A warrant against someone already out of office at issuance does not count, even if issued shortly after they leave. Edge cases on de facto leadership (e.g., a junta chairman functioning as head of state) resolve toward whether the person is genuinely the country's top national authority. Ambiguities will be fixed promptly once flagged; betting through an un-flagged ambiguity is at the bettor's own risk.