Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kemi Badenoch holds the official title of Leader of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom on May 1, 2026. If she does not hold this position on that date, the market will resolve to "No." The determination will be based on official announcements from the Conservative Party or reputable news sources.

Background:

Kemi Badenoch became the Leader of the Conservative Party on November 2, 2024, succeeding Rishi Sunak after the party's significant defeat in the July 2024 general election. As the first Black woman to lead a major UK political party, Badenoch has pledged to renew the party by focusing on traditional Conservative values and preparing for the next general election, expected by 2029.

The local elections on May 1, 2025, resulted in significant losses for the Conservative Party, with Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, making substantial gains. This outcome intensified scrutiny of Badenoch's leadership, with some party officials describing the situation as "apocalyptic" and questioning her ability to lead the party effectively.

Given these developments, Badenoch's position as Leader of the Conservative Party appears increasingly precarious. Traders should monitor upcoming political events, party performance in future elections, and internal party dynamics to assess the likelihood of her remaining in leadership through May 1, 2026.