Resolves YES if at any date before the 1st of January 2027, the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party announce that the threshold of letters of no confidence (currently 33% of all Conservative MPs - 41 MPs as at date of creation) has been met, a Vote of No Confidence is scheduled, and takes place before the close date.
If a VoNC does not happen, or a vote is triggered but does not take place before 1st Jan 2027, this resolves NO.
According to current party rules, no VoNC can take place before the party leader has been in place for a full year, meaning a VoNC cannot take place before November 2025, so this covers a period of a little over a year after VoNC season starts.
Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Updates:
YES Outcome: Resolves YES only if the party rules are changed to allow a Vote of No Confidence (VoNC) before the usual 12‑month protection period and a VoNC is subsequently scheduled and takes place before 1 January 2027.
NO Outcome: Resolves NO if Kemi Badenoch resigns or if any other process (such as being ousted in the current local elections before the protection period ends) results in her no longer holding the leadership without triggering a formal VoNC under the modified rules.
1,000The Torygraph is writing articles about Badenoch being ousted after this year’s local elections. Which you might recognise as being before the 12 months of VoNC protection is supposed to last. So just to be clear on this: resolves YES if the rules are changed and a VoNC happens. I’ll resolve NO if she resigns or there’s some other nonsense that results in her no longer holding the leadership.