ECFA = Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, a Free Trade Agreement between Taiwan and China that was signed by the Ma administration
China announced a probe into some of Taiwan's trade practices after Tsai met McCarthy in California this April. The probe is due to close the day before Taiwan's election (a total coincidence of course).
Resolves YES if China announces that it is (will) suspending or ending most or all of ECFA, in the period between January 1st and January 12th 2024.
Does not resolve YES if China only announces that Taiwan is implementing illegal or unfair tariffs (etc) without announcing any punitive response.
I will not bet in order to retain flexibility iny judgement of what 'most' is. I would be looking to make a spirit of the market resolution, if it's clear that China is threatening to substantially reduce trade through the suspension of parts of ECFA.
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