Will a tunnel between China and Taiwan have started construction by 2040?
Will a tunnel between China and Taiwan have started construction by 2040?
19
1kṀ5282040
22%
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Such a project would dwarf any tunnel that has come before it, but is arguably seen as a political necessity by the Chinese government. The Taiwanese government, not so much
Edit: the island of Taiwan, obviously. A tunnel to territory currently part of ROC would not count if its not the main island
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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