Resolution criteria

• Resolves to the organization that first achieves a soft landing on the surface of Enceladus, defined as an intentionally planned, survivable touchdown of a spacecraft element that transmits telemetry from the surface (e.g., health/housekeeping, science data, or imagery). Penetrators designed to survive impact and transmit from the surface count; unplanned impacts or impactors with no post-contact telemetry do not.

• “Organization” = the mission owner/operator of the landed element at touchdown. Launch providers or manufacturers do not count unless they also own/operate the lander.

• If a mission is jointly operated by a private company like SpaceX and a space agency like NASA, resolves to the space agency. If jointly operated by two companies or two agencies, whoever is administering this market should make a good faith attempt to determine which is the lead operator of the mission.

• Evidence: official mission pages or press releases from the operator (e.g., NASA, ESA, JAXA, CNSA) stating a successful landing and time of touchdown. Touchdown time is taken in UTC if needed for tie-breaking.

Background

• No spacecraft has yet landed on Enceladus. ESA notes that “no space agency has ever landed on little Enceladus.” (esa.int)

• NASA’s 2023–2032 Planetary Science Decadal Survey recommends starting the Enceladus Orbilander flagship late this decade; viable opportunities would target a landing in the early 2050s when south‑polar illumination is favorable. (nap.nationalacademies.org)

• ESA has identified Enceladus as the most compelling target for its next large-class science mission and is studying concepts; ESA teams have also proposed an Enceladus multiple‑flyby mission (“Moonraker”) as a precursor. (esa.int)

• Enceladus landers are Planetary Protection Category IV (and Category V if samples return), implying stringent bioburden control—an added schedule/cost driver. (planetaryprotection.jpl.nasa.gov)

Considerations

• Outer‑planet cruise and tour times are long; the Decadal Survey’s Orbilander concept assumes ~7–9 years to Saturn plus a multi‑year Saturnian tour before landing, pointing to earliest plausible landings in the 2050s. (nap.nationalacademies.org)

• Verification will almost certainly come via an operator’s real‑time mission feed/press release; traders should watch official channels for NASA, ESA, JAXA, and CNSA for UTC‑stamped landing confirmations. (science.nasa.gov)