China invades Taiwan vs China lands on the Moon ; Before 2030
7
380Ṁ1332029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
15%
China invades Taiwan ; China lands on the Moon
17%
China invades Taiwan ; China doesn't land on the Moon
45%
China doesn't invade Taiwan ; China lands on the Moon
22%
China doesn't invade Taiwan ; China doesn't land on the Moon
Before 2030, not including it.
-Invades the main island of Taiwan. If there is a lack of clarity it should resolve according to the largest applicable 'China invades Taiwan' market on Manifold at the time.
-Crewed landing. Crew must leave the lander and walk on the surface.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
34% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
4% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
3% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by EOY 2025/beginning of year 2026?
4% chance
When will China invade Taiwan?
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
52% chance