By the start of 2025, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?
6
113
130
2025
34%
chance

P.S = Proof School

M.M = Manifold Markets

So, Proof School has brought a good amount of its student body to the Manifold Markets website. Will the Manifold Markets site do the same for us?

Note, the title is actually a wee misleading... sorry! There's character limits! What I mean by that, is that a similar thing for parents applies to. If a parent of a student at Proof School was substantially influenced by the presence of Proof School on Manifold Markets, then that also counts!

Obviously, this is very ripe to manipulation, a tried and true tactic called "lying." Now, it's my job as market creator to try to limit the impact of lying!

First of all, everyone who is currently attending Proof School (and their parents) are disqualified from counting for this market. Proof School didn't have a significant enough footprint on Manifold Markets for it to be any way feasible that this is where you'd first hear of the school.

Secondly, I would consider it very dishonorable to lie about this. Now, admittedly, all the people who could be lying are people I will have never met, so that might not mean much. But I would consider it very dishonorable to lie about this!

Thirdly, while I will not outright disregard folks who did not comment about Proof School in a Manifold related context before they or their child attended, I will consider those who did comment before actually attending/applying with significantly more credulity.

Fourthly, I will do my best to ""game the social markets"" as it were, and try to solicit information about whether, any person claiming that Manifold Markets substnatially influenced their decision to attend Proof School, is claiming this in good faith. This is to make the social cost of lying higher.

Fifthly, the student/parent must have had a Manifold Markets account before the deadline to decide whether or not you are attending Proof School (in other words, I won't believe that you first heard about the school on Manifold if neither you nor your parent had an account on Manifold when you actually decided to go to the school).

Anyways, that's my anti-lying policy! Hope it works!

Anyways, that's the market. Due to the strong possibility of subjective resolution, I will not bet in this market.

If anyone has any suggestions for how to improve this market, the description is open to change for the next month (until June 17th). I will not change the spirit of the market, but if someone has suggestions for "operationalizing" this market, I'd sure appreciate them!

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To be explicit, if someone like @Conflux or I talks about Proof School on Manifold Markets and that substantially influences someone's decision then that would count. If however, a Proof Student connects with someone on Manifold Markets and talks with them off the platform (and thereby substantial influencing their decision), then that would likely not count, though it would depend on the specifics of the situation and how proximate Manifold Markets was to their decision.

Does this seem to reflect the spirit of the market as y’all understand/understood it?

@JoshuaB that seems slightly unfair, but i understand it somewhat. i would say manifold was influential in my decision to apply to certain programs, but i didn't put on their program i heard about it from manifold but rather the people i asked that i had seen on manifold. so its up to you.

@astyerche Ooh, good point... I'll think about that and “”make a decision tomorrow.”"

I think I’m having an inclination towards what you’re saying, in the direction of a “I’ll decide it when we get there." I guess I’d say something along the lines of:

"If however, a Proof Student connects with someone on Manifold Markets and talks with them off the platform (and thereby substantial influencing their decision), then that would be decided on a case-by-case basis depending on how proximate Manifold Markets was to their discussion, and other relevant details"

I do want to make sure that I stay in the spirit of the "was substantially influenced by the presence of Proof School on Manifold Markets, then that also counts!” line, and uh, “”will keep that in mind when resolving,”” and also more heavily weigh arguments that “”use that”” as a piece

bought Ṁ30 of NO

I’m happy to talk to any potential Proof students or parents! I’m super pleased I get to go to Proof, and it’s a great fit for me. See also https://proofschool.org

@Conflux i love how you vote no while promoting

@Conflux I'm personally a graduating senior and would also love to espouse how great the school is!

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@astyerche Hey, it’s a tight timeline, and they might not get accepted! But doesn’t mean I wouldn’t be thrilled if it occurred

@Conflux for any potential applicants, i can confirm conflux is a real individual with only your best intentions in mind 👍

to conflux, send them my way if you think i can help if i have a perspective on it (sports, etc.)

bought Ṁ25 of YES

i mean didn't @AlexCao literally find proof on quora

this is not in fact impossible -- a lot of things i get interested in are just from following links to figure stuff out, and if someone stumbles onto manifold markets and finds this, i wouldnt be too surprised. i like your resolution criteria!