By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?
5
34
130
2027
62%
chance

P.S = Proof School

M.M = Manifold Markets

So, Proof School has brought a good amount of its student body to the Manifold Markets website. Will the Manifold Markets site do the same for us?

Note, the title is actually a wee misleading... sorry! There's character limits! What I mean by that, is that a similar thing for parents applies to. If a parent of a student at Proof School was substantially influenced by the presence of Proof School on Manifold Markets, then that also counts!

Obviously, this is very ripe to manipulation, a tried and true tactic called "lying." Now, it's my job as market creator to try to limit the impact of lying!

First of all, everyone who is currently attending Proof School (and their parents) are disqualified from counting for this market. Proof School didn't have a significant enough footprint on Manifold Markets for it to be any way feasible that this is where you'd first hear of the school.

Secondly, I would consider it very dishonorable to lie about this. Now, admittedly, all the people who could be lying are people I will have never met, so that might not mean much. But I would consider it very dishonorable to lie about this!

Thirdly, while I will not outright disregard folks who did not comment about Proof School in a Manifold related context before they or their child attended, I will consider those who did comment before actually attending/applying with significantly more credulity.

Fourthly, I will do my best to ""game the social markets"" as it were, and try to solicit information about whether, any person claiming that Manifold Markets substnatially influenced their decision to attend Proof School, is claiming this in good faith. This is to make the social cost of lying higher.

Fifthly, the student/parent must have had a Manifold Markets account before the deadline to decide whether or not you are attending Proof School (in other words, I won't believe that you first heard about the school on Manifold if neither you nor your parent had an account on Manifold when you actually decided to go to the school).

Anyways, that's my anti-lying policy! Hope it works!

Anyways, that's the market. Due to the strong possibility of subjective resolution, I will not bet in this market.

If anyone has any suggestions for how to improve this market, the description is open to change for the next month (until June 17th). I will not change the spirit of the market, but if someone has suggestions for "operationalizing" this market, I'd sure appreciate them!

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