Previously: /EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-unanticipated-wide
This market is about the Rumsfeldian uncertainties that will be massively profitable for me, personally, by market close.
2024-01-02 07:50:47 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:51:18 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:52:07 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:52:46 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:54:39 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:58:50 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:59:37 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:00:02 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:00:40 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:01:06 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:01:10 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:01:48 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:04:33 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:14:19 USER M 835 CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
Bugged excess payouts on LLM propaganda market sum to more than 5k, resolves YES @Joshua.
@chrisjbillington Verify thusly:
curl "https://pxidrgkatumlvfqaxcll.supabase.co/rest/v1/txns?apikey=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJzdXBhYmFzZSIsInJlZiI6InB4aWRyZ2thdHVtbHZmcWF4Y2xsIiwicm9sZSI6ImFub24iLCJpYXQiOjE2Njg5OTUzOTgsImV4cCI6MTk4NDU3MTM5OH0.d_yYtASLzAoIIGdXUBIgRAGLBnNow7JG2SoaNMQ8ySg&select=data&limit=100000&data->>toId=eq.JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2" | grep "Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN"
(to concerned onlookers, this is the anonymous API key, nothing private)
@Joshua must the bug be entirely unanticipated, i.e. 5k must drop into your lap without anyone having engineered it? I'm thinking: what if an unanticipated bug appears, and it would only cause you to receive 5k in certain circumstances - what if you or someone else then exploited the bug to cause you to get 5k when you otherwise wouldn't have?
Well I just lost more than 5k mana in the great loan repayment, which means I guess that I did gain more than 5k mana but I didn't get to keep it. I think this doesn't count, but I'm selling my no here because apparently large mana glitches are more common than I thought.
@Joshua does it count if the bug, had it not been noticed, would have resulted in permanent free mana, but it is noticed and the mana reclaimed? Or do you have to keep the mana?
I think based on the description wording of "massively profitable for me, personally" I should only count it if I expect to be able to keep the mana, like Manifold previously deciding it would be too much work to reverse the extra free loans (though future such loan incidents would now be anticipated, so it needs to be something new).
@Joshua There was a bug just patched whereby resolved answers on independent multiple-choice questions were still paying loans. The loans were recorded against the answer, but would never be repaid (since that happens at resolution time). Manifold will likely (actually, I realise my scepticism as I write that) trigger repayment of these loans manually, so people won't keep the free money.
Don't know how much free mana you got out of this - probably a lot less than 5k unless you've been betting huge amounts on some multiple-choice answers just before resolution - but yeah, likely to be repaid.
@Stralor He's got loan notifications turned off (I think Edit: apparently not but I'm just not reading the db right) but it looks like should have been a smidge over 5k
@Joshua 🫢is that dive your repayment of the marcus investment?? or what market has that kind of liquidity right now?!
Last loan 2 hours ago was also just under 5k
@Joshua Turns out these loans weren't of the free kind anyway, so it doesn't matter. You only scored free mana equal to the returns you can get on the extra interest-free loan before you have to pay it back, so well short of $5k.