Will there be an unanticipated bug that gets me at least 5000 mana by 2024-02-01?
Basic
15
Ṁ1757
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

Previously: /EvanDaniel/will-there-be-an-unanticipated-wide

This market is about the Rumsfeldian uncertainties that will be massively profitable for me, personally, by market close.

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Ṁ1,000
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2024-01-02 07:50:47     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:51:18     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:52:07     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:52:46     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:54:39     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:58:50     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 07:59:37     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:00:02     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:00:40     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:01:06     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:01:10     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:01:48     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:04:33     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN
2024-01-02 08:14:19     USER     M 835        CONTRACT_RESOLUTION_PAYOUT    Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN

Bugged excess payouts on LLM propaganda market sum to more than 5k, resolves YES @Joshua.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Verify thusly:

curl "https://pxidrgkatumlvfqaxcll.supabase.co/rest/v1/txns?apikey=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJzdXBhYmFzZSIsInJlZiI6InB4aWRyZ2thdHVtbHZmcWF4Y2xsIiwicm9sZSI6ImFub24iLCJpYXQiOjE2Njg5OTUzOTgsImV4cCI6MTk4NDU3MTM5OH0.d_yYtASLzAoIIGdXUBIgRAGLBnNow7JG2SoaNMQ8ySg&select=data&limit=100000&data->>toId=eq.JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2" | grep "Contract payout for resolution: 1tGci7CKuli7MpdwNDmN"

(to concerned onlookers, this is the anonymous API key, nothing private)

predicted NO

@Joshua must the bug be entirely unanticipated, i.e. 5k must drop into your lap without anyone having engineered it? I'm thinking: what if an unanticipated bug appears, and it would only cause you to receive 5k in certain circumstances - what if you or someone else then exploited the bug to cause you to get 5k when you otherwise wouldn't have?

Well I just lost more than 5k mana in the great loan repayment, which means I guess that I did gain more than 5k mana but I didn't get to keep it. I think this doesn't count, but I'm selling my no here because apparently large mana glitches are more common than I thought.

@Joshua does it count if the bug, had it not been noticed, would have resulted in permanent free mana, but it is noticed and the mana reclaimed? Or do you have to keep the mana?

predicted NO

I think based on the description wording of "massively profitable for me, personally" I should only count it if I expect to be able to keep the mana, like Manifold previously deciding it would be too much work to reverse the extra free loans (though future such loan incidents would now be anticipated, so it needs to be something new).

@Joshua There was a bug just patched whereby resolved answers on independent multiple-choice questions were still paying loans. The loans were recorded against the answer, but would never be repaid (since that happens at resolution time). Manifold will likely (actually, I realise my scepticism as I write that) trigger repayment of these loans manually, so people won't keep the free money.

Don't know how much free mana you got out of this - probably a lot less than 5k unless you've been betting huge amounts on some multiple-choice answers just before resolution - but yeah, likely to be repaid.

predicted NO

Interesting! Yeah I could see some outcomes where that coudl count if the repayment didn't happen, but I don't think I have any particularly huge loans from unlinked markets.

predicted YES

@Joshua how much was the extra loan you just got

@Stralor these markets can't even last half an hour lololol

predicted YES

@Stralor He's got loan notifications turned off (I think Edit: apparently not but I'm just not reading the db right) but it looks like should have been a smidge over 5k

predicted NO

Uhhhh

Looks like just under 5k actually?

predicted YES

@Joshua 🫢is that dive your repayment of the marcus investment?? or what market has that kind of liquidity right now?!

predicted NO

Last loan 2 hours ago was also just under 5k

@Joshua aaaaaaaaaaaaa

@Joshua Turns out these loans weren't of the free kind anyway, so it doesn't matter. You only scored free mana equal to the returns you can get on the extra interest-free loan before you have to pay it back, so well short of $5k.

How much did you get from the double-loans? I'm up ~23k and unless they saved a copy of the notifications database (which appears to discard old entries), they no longer have a record of how much needs to be reversed.

Gotta be a new thing after this market! But more stuff like that but not exactly the same could count

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